Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x55bc…4eb0 crypto 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,584 (+2%) realized +$2,584 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate71%318W / 127L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$327
7 days+$326
14 days−$124
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$2,968
finance 11% −$120
other 10% −$78
sports 2% −$265
tech 1% +$28
world 0% −$38
politics 0% −$18
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 40% 40% +33.6%
≤30d 32 -16.1% -24.1% 62% 50% -11.4%
≤90d 51 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 57% -8.5%
all 445 -2.9% -12.2% 71% 35% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 35% -7.5%
10% -20.6% 20% -16.4%
15% -28.3% 13% -24.5%
20% -35.3% 9% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$54 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,584
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses318 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)445 / 445
History coverage203d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 445 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 +$17 +16%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $506 +$356 +70%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $702 −$700 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$27 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $668 +$7 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $452 +$216 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $449 +$48 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $286 +$163 +57%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $611 +$53 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $131 +$14 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $502 +$79 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $126 +$23 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $30 +$6 +21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $490 +$33 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 31 $86 −$86 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 +$98 +97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $358 +$46 +13%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 26 $85 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 12 $203 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 23 $74 +$12 +16%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +62%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-05? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Coritiba FBC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $119 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $35 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $29 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $551 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $150 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 13d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $668 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $452 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $449 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $286 16d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 19d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $101 20d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $5 20d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 81¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 20d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 92¢ $601 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1394 history records