Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55be…bcc0 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-4%) realized −$21 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days+$79
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$35
sports 8% −$8
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -62.5% -66.1% 0% 0% -61.2%
≤30d 11 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 45% -16.8%
≤90d 12 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 50% -16.4%
all 12 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 50% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 50% -16.4%
10% -12.3% 42% -24.4%
15% -20.7% 33% -31.7%
20% -28.5% 33% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$31 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 23
History coverage40d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $110 $92 −$18 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $80 $72 −$8 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 +$41 +82%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $50 +$56 +112%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 38¢ $30 12h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 12¢ $21 15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 15¢ $21 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $0 5d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 25¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 29¢ $20 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 10d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 11d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 12d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 12d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 12d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 12d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 89¢ $105 14d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.49 · official $360.49 · 48 history records