Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x55c1…6485 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$990 (+16%) realized +$990 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,580
sports 45% −$723
crypto 2% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 40% +5.9%
≤30d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 40% +5.9%
≤90d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 40% +5.9%
all 25 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 40% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 40% +5.9%
10% -21.7% 40% -4.3%
15% -29.3% 40% -13.5%
20% -36.2% 32% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$104 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized+$990
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 56¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 36¢ 36¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $181 −$3 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $336 +$168 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $242 +$217 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,265 +$1,466 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 +$8 +101%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $394 −$388 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$1 -7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $64 +$1 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $306 −$301 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $309 −$304 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$4 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $244 +$227 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$58 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $177 17m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $203 17m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $101 18m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 18m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 35¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $99 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $51 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 19h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $102 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $336 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 41h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 41h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $242 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,249 41h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $394 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $8 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 34¢ $8 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.26 · official $548.26 (match) · 61 history records