Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55cc…8c91 other 53 markets active 22h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-5%) realized −$155 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$41
14 days−$110
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$123
sports 38% +$19
politics 12% −$9
crypto 5% −$83
world 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.6% -31.7% 18% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 38 -17.6% -25.4% 18% 11% -17.4%
≤90d 38 -17.6% -25.4% 18% 11% -17.4%
all 38 -17.6% -25.4% 18% 11% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 11% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 8% -25.3%
15% -39.1% 8% -32.5%
20% -45.1% 8% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 31
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions15
Markets (closed)38 / 53
History coverage27d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $126 $140 +$14 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $91 $73 −$18 (-20%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes $27 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 87¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 74¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 69¢ 67¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 80¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $89 +$7 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $806 −$28 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 13 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $25 −$3 -12%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 05 $60 −$4 -7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 05 $10 −$1 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $30 −$4 -15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$8 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $203 −$66 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $40 −$13 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $137 −$11 -8%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $291 −$40 -14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$79 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$15 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 25 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 25 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $161 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $98 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.25 · official $432.25 (match) · 709 history records