Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x55d0…bcea
crypto · 203 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$413 +55%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$413 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses53 / 146
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)199 / 203
History coverage135d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 4 History 199 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 +$3 +47%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -39%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -37%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $5 +$8 +160%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $3 +$2 +68%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? May 20 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 19 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 18 $1 +$2 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$110
other 27% +$499
crypto 19% −$34
politics 10% +$9
sports 5% −$20
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% +$73
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 89¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 17¢ $6 29h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 37h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 19¢ $1 47h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 27¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? SELL No 93¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 69¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 66¢ $6 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 66¢ $6 2d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.4% -19.0% 22% 22% -8.8%
≤30d 125 -10.6% -19.1% 29% 28% +33.4%
≤90d 139 -7.0% -15.9% 27% 26% +20.2%
all 199 +18.8% +7.5% 27% 26% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 26% +1.5%
10% -2.8% 24% -8.2%
15% -12.2% 23% -17.1%
20% -20.8% 20% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.47 · official $17.47 (match) · 453 history records