Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55d0…944d crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$930per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$33
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.7% -28.3% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -18.5% -26.3% 17% 4% -10.6%
≤90d 26 -22.9% -30.3% 15% 4% -10.6%
all 26 -22.9% -30.3% 15% 4% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 4% -10.6%
10% -36.9% 4% -19.1%
15% -43.0% 4% -27.0%
20% -48.6% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage34d
Avg bet$930
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $393 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $917 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $7,092 −$8 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,291 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $309 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $70 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $2,864 −$6 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? May 31 $132 −$4 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 30 $145 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $4,733 −$14 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $40 −$10 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $184 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 13 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $306 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $307 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $451 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $452 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $458 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $459 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $465 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $466 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $472 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $473 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $479 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $480 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $487 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $487 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $494 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $495 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $401 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $25 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $20 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $206 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $207 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $39 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $39 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 89¢ $30 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.88 · official $40.39 · 313 history records