Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x55d3…a0fb other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$120 (+21%) realized +$123 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$8
crypto 41% +$123
sports 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +122.2% +101.1% 100% 100% +101.1%
≤90d 1 +122.2% +101.1% 100% 100% +101.1%
all 6 +31.0% +18.5% 67% 50% +31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 50% +31.8%
10% +7.2% 50% +19.2%
15% -3.2% 50% +7.6%
20% -12.7% 50% -2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +122% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$31 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage107d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $315 $312 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $141 +$172 +122%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $3 +$6 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 15 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $319 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $64 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 27d
Warriors vs. Celtics BUY Warriors 17¢ $14 102d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 102d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 103d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $49 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.48 · official $312.48 (match) · 30 history records