Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55da…22d1 crypto 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-6%) realized −$87 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate50%223W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$23
14 days−$43
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$41
crypto 38% −$79
other 17% −$8
politics 1% +$2
world 1% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -29.6% -36.3% 34% 29% -17.3%
≤30d 168 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 36% -15.7%
≤90d 442 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 32% -16.1%
all 442 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 32% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 32% -16.1%
10% -32.1% 20% -24.1%
15% -38.7% 15% -31.4%
20% -44.7% 10% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses223 / 219
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)442 / 444
History coverage69d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 85¢ 62¢ $25 $19 −$7 (-26%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 59¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 +$19 +210%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 −$11 -85%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$12 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$35 +110%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $39 −$13 -34%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$3 +47%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 08 $1 $0 -5%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $1 −$1 -57%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -41%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $7 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 78¢ $7 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 70¢ $19 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 16¢ $1 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 15¢ $1 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 16¢ $1 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $5 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 52¢ $2 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $2 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $0 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $5 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $0 38h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $21 38h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $1 38h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $2 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.23 · official $19.23 (match) · 1280 history records