Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55db…8db6 sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,257 (-9%) realized −$6,734 · open −$523
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%63W / 41L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$739per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$408
7 days+$408
14 days+$90
30 days−$3,332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$7,045
other 2% −$338
crypto 1% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.4% +9.8% 100% 80% +8.4%
≤30d 29 -2.2% -11.5% 59% 48% -21.9%
≤90d 30 -5.0% -14.0% 57% 47% -27.8%
all 104 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 48% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 48% -17.8%
10% -17.4% 32% -25.7%
15% -25.4% 23% -32.9%
20% -32.7% 16% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$873) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$409 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$6,734
Unrealized−$523
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses63 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage113d
Avg bet$739
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner LYON 58¢ 88¢ $234 $354 +$120 (+51%)
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner Atrix Esports 67¢ 0¢ $643 $0 −$642 (-100%)
Valorant: la Masia vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In la Masia 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $710 +$75 +11%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $133 +$39 +29%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 24 $454 +$233 +51%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $381 +$55 +14%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $380 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +157%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $318 −$314 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $128 −$126 -98%
ITF Troisdorf: Yannic Nittmann vs Sydney Zick May 27 $8 −$7 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 $0 +11%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $975 −$474 -49%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $158 −$158 -100%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Gro May 27 $378 −$374 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 27 $2,155 −$1,950 -90%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $169 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $358 −$320 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $53 −$23 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 26 $105 +$198 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 26 $105 −$24 -23%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $7,748 −$2,845 -37%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,644 +$31 +2%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,301 +$682 +30%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,493 +$720 +29%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,634 +$384 +24%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $796 +$400 +50%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $681 +$116 +17%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $652 +$347 +53%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 26 $2,389 −$2,083 -87%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 24 $1,971 +$270 +14%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,279 +$224 +18%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,183 +$563 +48%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $735 +$449 +61%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $305 +$128 +42%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $559 +$327 +59%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $1,423 +$806 +57%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 24 $545 +$22 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,142 +$260 +23%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $1,762 −$24 -1%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Mar 24 $11,119 −$4,166 -38%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $790 +$125 +16%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,174 −$1,172 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $4,384 +$729 +17%
Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5 Mar 24 $879 +$411 +47%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $1,932 −$418 -22%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $1,949 −$338 -17%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $798 +$324 +41%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $1,940 −$276 -14%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $461 +$197 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $5 7m
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY LYON 58¢ $232 7m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL Atrix Esports 52¢ $15 12m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL Atrix Esports 79¢ $149 14m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL Atrix Esports 80¢ $79 14m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $152 18m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $41 18m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $13 19m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $13 20m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 79¢ $18 20m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 78¢ $8 22m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 78¢ $8 22m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 78¢ $8 22m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 76¢ $30 22m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 67¢ $51 23m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 67¢ $2 23m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 74¢ $29 23m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 74¢ $22 23m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $29 24m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 69¢ $229 24m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 63¢ $126 24m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 55¢ $17 26m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 54¢ $27 26m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 51¢ $21 26m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 36¢ $11 27m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 29¢ $5 28m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL shimmer 63¢ $790 30m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 77¢ $26 33m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 77¢ $8 33m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY shimmer 77¢ $78 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.48 · official $330.10 · 715 history records