Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55dc…999e crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%34W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$3
crypto 21% −$7
tech 15% $0
economics 5% −$3
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% −$13
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 15% -10.4%
≤30d 21 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 10% -9.9%
≤90d 35 -16.1% -24.1% 46% 6% -10.2%
all 74 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 4% -10.1%
10% -25.6% 1% -18.7%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses34 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)74 / 81
History coverage246d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $270 $270 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+45%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $260 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $300 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $365 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 20 $41 $0 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 20 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 20 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 06 $2 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 24 $20 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Mar 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Mar 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 09 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Feb 02 $55 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $12 +$1 +9%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 17 $1 $0 -22%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Jan 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $270 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $260 32h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 32h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $85 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $188 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $200 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $209 32h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.69 · official $339.69 (match) · 293 history records