Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x55e2…70fb politics 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$11
politics 38% −$11
sports 7% +$40
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 +1.5% -8.2% 8% 6% -9.3%
all 112 -1.9% -11.2% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 6% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage119d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $186 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $159 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $188 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $416 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $420 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $315 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $186 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $428 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $403 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $382 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $186 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $186 27d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $153 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $153 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 35d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 39d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $215 48d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 48d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 48d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $185 48d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $185 48d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $169 48d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $169 48d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $205 48d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $205 49d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $217 49d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $217 49d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $188 49d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 49d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $166 50d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $166 50d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $202 51d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $202 51d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $204 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.95 · official $32.95 (match) · 326 history records