Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x55e2…5ba1
crypto · 313 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$28 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses204 / 108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)312 / 313
History coverage134d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 312 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? No 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2PM ET May 26 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +35%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET May 07 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4PM ET May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12PM ET May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET May 03 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4PM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11AM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4PM ET Apr 26 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3PM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2PM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$10
other 4% −$14
politics 2% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5h
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 12h
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.5% -19.1% 69% 15% -23.0%
≤30d 31 +10.0% -0.5% 71% 35% -8.7%
≤90d 120 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 38% -11.3%
all 312 -5.1% -14.2% 65% 45% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 45% -13.3%
10% -22.4% 31% -21.6%
15% -29.9% 21% -29.2%
20% -36.8% 16% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.60 · official $6.60 (match) · 788 history records