Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x55e2…4595 politics 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$1
world 29% +$3
other 12% $0
economics 7% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 11% -7.8%
≤90d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 11% -7.8%
all 32 +0.8% -8.8% 28% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×11.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.7 per $1 lost it wins $11.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage304d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $44 +$3 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on August 21? Aug 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 20 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 18 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 3h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $18 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $51 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $51 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $42 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $1 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $16 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $17 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $35 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $44 16d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 22d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 299d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $9 299d
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $41 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records