trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -13.2% | -21.4% | 75% | 25% | +11.5% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -16.5% | -24.5% | 76% | 18% | +1.6% |
| all | 23 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 74% | 17% | -6.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.8% | 17% | -6.4% |
| 10% | -33.8% | 9% | -15.4% |
| 15% | -40.2% | 0% | -23.6% |
| 20% | -46.1% | 0% | -31.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $2,225 | $204 | −$2,022 (-91%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-10%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $1,036 | $2 | −$1,034 (-100%) |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 79¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? | Jun 02 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1,552 | +$483 | +31% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $300 | +$19 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | May 26 | $500 | +$49 | +10% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? | May 16 | $282 | +$18 | +6% |
| Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? | May 16 | $424 | +$12 | +3% |
| Will any other model have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? | May 12 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? | May 10 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | May 10 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | May 10 | $200 | +$30 | +15% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? | Apr 01 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $200 | +$20 | +10% |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $200 | +$22 | +11% |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 01 | $230 | +$10 | +4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 01 | $294 | +$28 | +10% |
| Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $320 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M | Mar 19 | $200 | +$13 | +7% |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17 | Mar 19 | $200 | +$17 | +8% |
| Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the third-most seats in the Ne | Mar 16 | $1,323 | +$18 | +1% |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | Mar 09 | $290 | −$290 | -100% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Mar 09 | $134 | −$134 | -100% |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026? | Mar 09 | $41 | +$9 | +23% |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Mar 09 | $183 | +$17 | +9% |