Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x55e3…b615 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$565 (+7%) realized +$423 · open +$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%49W / 94L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$841
7 days−$50
14 days+$450
30 days+$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$494
other 31% +$371
crypto 3% −$240
world 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -3.9% -13.1% 31% 31% -10.3%
≤30d 143 +5.3% -4.7% 34% 34% -3.8%
≤90d 143 +5.3% -4.7% 34% 34% -3.8%
all 143 +5.3% -4.7% 34% 34% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 34% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 34% -13.0%
15% -22.2% 32% -21.4%
20% -29.8% 29% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$35 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized+$423
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses49 / 94
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions9
Markets (closed)143 / 153
History coverage9d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $211 $414 +$203 (+96%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 100¢ $30 $112 +$82 (+269%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $39 +$11 +28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $59 +$36 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $46 −$32 -70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$27 -67%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 −$14 -70%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$74 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $60 +$51 +86%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$3 -10%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $44 +$18 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$53 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$82 +206%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$42 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $36 +$77 +216%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -60%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $91 +$47 +52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$54 +134%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $14 +$37 +254%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $106 +$115 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $66 +$50 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$29 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $33 +$49 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $72 +$41 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $89 31m
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $95 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 26¢ $19 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 26¢ $25 3h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $55 3h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $55 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $144 3h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $14 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 SELL Over 8¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $59 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $40 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $46 11h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $35 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.22 · official $558.32 (match) · 275 history records