Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55e7…4fb9 sports 1351 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,849 (+6%) realized +$2,828 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%685W / 656L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$652est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$115
14 days−$15
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,199
other 6% −$249
weather 1% +$2
crypto 1% −$26
politics 0% +$27
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +9.2% -1.2% 49% 49% -2.7%
≤30d 131 +2.3% -7.4% 46% 46% -7.5%
≤90d 1341 -2.0% -11.4% 51% 45% -7.7%
all 1341 -2.0% -11.4% 51% 45% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 45% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 45% -16.6%
15% -27.6% 43% -24.6%
20% -34.7% 38% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$31 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized+$2,828
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses685 / 656
Est. fees paid−$652
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1341 / 1351
History coverage84d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Adam Walton 75¢ 88¢ $52 $61 +$9 (+18%)
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 65¢ 64¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 50¢ 55¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+9%)
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Alexandra Eala 50¢ 48¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Solana Sierra 48¢ 67¢ $23 $31 +$9 (+40%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jaume Munar 43¢ 42¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Taylor Townsend 43¢ 44¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 32¢ 34¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Francisco Cerundolo 33¢ 34¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 34¢ 36¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $28 +$31 +109%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco Jun 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5) Jun 20 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$31 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $26 +$28 +105%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $26 +$42 +158%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$37 +180%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $28 +$37 +129%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $21 +$24 +114%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $78 +$60 +76%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $28 −$28 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$37 +180%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $35 +$27 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $17 +$25 +146%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $26 +$27 +101%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 +$37 +119%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $52 −$14 -26%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $26 +$27 +101%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $35 +$22 +62%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 16 $26 −$26 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $21 +$25 +119%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $17 +$28 +165%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $28 +$58 +206%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $26 +$26 +97%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $52 +$19 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $31 −$31 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $18 +$34 +197%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $52 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$23 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 +$26 +97%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $31 +$34 +109%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 43¢ $31 36m
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 50¢ $39 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 65¢ $52 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 33¢ $20 2h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 32¢ $20 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend BUY Taylor Townsend 43¢ $21 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 50¢ $40 8h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 34¢ $16 11h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 48¢ $23 14h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 75¢ $52 17h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $28 21h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco BUY Daniel Rincon 50¢ $39 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 34¢ $20 26h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5) BUY Dallas Wings 48¢ $26 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $31 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $40 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $26 35h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $28 40h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $17 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 43¢ $28 2d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 44¢ $28 2d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 46¢ $21 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $26 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 47¢ $31 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $26 2d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 58¢ $26 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $28 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 56¢ $78 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 38¢ $26 3d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 40¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.52 · official $332.90 (match) · 2930 history records