Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55e8…cacc other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$44 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$25
sports 8% −$8
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.3% -33.4% 50% 50% -1.3%
≤30d 4 -26.3% -33.4% 50% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 4 -26.3% -33.4% 50% 50% -1.3%
all 4 -26.3% -33.4% 50% 50% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 50% -1.3%
10% -39.7% 25% -10.7%
15% -45.6% 25% -19.3%
20% -50.9% 25% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 30¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 43¢ 6¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.20 · official $68.91 (match) · 11 history records