Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55e9…b87e sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$233 (-11%) realized −$203 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%44W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$275
14 days−$239
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$121
other 34% +$166
crypto 20% −$305
world 1% +$8
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.8% -20.2% 62% 62% -34.1%
≤30d 71 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 59% -19.5%
≤90d 71 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 59% -19.5%
all 74 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 58% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 58% -19.5%
10% -21.9% 47% -27.2%
15% -29.4% 30% -34.3%
20% -36.3% 19% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 30
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage333d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$30 +60%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $155 −$150 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $175 −$165 -94%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +32%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$10 +33%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $30 +$9 +29%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $20 +$4 +20%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +27%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$7 +24%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $96 +$44 +45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$5 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$7 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 −$25 -84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $75 +$17 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$15 +43%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$28 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $30 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $20 36h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 37h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $20 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $30 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 146 history records