Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55eb…cf1d crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (279 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,597 (+7%) realized +$4,597 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%194W / 360L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day278.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (279 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -71.3% -74.0% 18% 12% -31.9%
≤30d 554 -40.1% -45.8% 35% 26% -19.8%
≤90d 554 -40.1% -45.8% 35% 26% -19.8%
all 554 -40.1% -45.8% 35% 26% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover278.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.8% 26% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -51.0% 15% -27.5%
15% -55.7% 10% -34.5%
20% -60.0% 6% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$46 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized+$4,597
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses194 / 360
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 345
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$195
Trades / day278.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (271 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$79 -106%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$47 -272%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$74 -325%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $317 −$317 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$48 -118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $70 −$75 -107%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$80 -101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $118 −$118 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $86 −$82 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $27 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $26 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $34 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $27 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.10 · official $938.10 (match) · 3500 history records