Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x55ec…9063 crypto 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$440 (+1%) realized +$406 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%121W / 87L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$97
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$596
world 8% −$265
sports 3% −$167
politics 3% +$43
other 1% +$61
culture 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -75.4% -77.8% 20% 20% -41.2%
≤30d 19 -12.6% -21.0% 42% 32% -10.1%
≤90d 42 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 45% -7.1%
all 208 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 44% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 35% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 26% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 21% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$91 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$406
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses121 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 216
History coverage116d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $40 $61 +$21 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $85 +$9 +11%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $63 +$22 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $24 +$41 +174%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$11 -76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$30 +146%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 +$45 +291%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$18 -36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 07 $100 +$72 +72%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $1,056 −$47 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 07 $100 −$33 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 07 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 04 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 04 $75 +$45 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 04 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 04 $110 +$80 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 04 $200 +$135 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 04 $108 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 04 $783 +$90 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 04 $888 −$105 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 04 $400 +$240 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 04 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 202 Apr 04 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 04 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 04 $98 −$56 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 04 $200 +$188 +94%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 31 $1,074 −$119 -11%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 27 $580 −$16 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 25 $510 −$499 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 25 $700 +$445 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 24 $250 −$90 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 24 $500 +$500 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 24 $259 +$251 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $85 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06 BUY 2¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY 73¢ $63 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $24 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 15¢ $17 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $14 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 9¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $20 11d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 11d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $31 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $48 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.71 · official $123.71 (match) · 812 history records