Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
55 0x55ec…0717 world 36 markets active 2d ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 30% +$1
politics 21% +$1
crypto 10% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 36 +0.5% -9.1% 42% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage274d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 02 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Oct 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $28 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $24 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $10 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records