trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 16¢ | $3,821 | $28,587 | +$24,766 (+648%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 11¢ | $2,767 | $17,513 | +$14,746 (+533%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 17¢ | $1,372 | $13,958 | +$12,586 (+917%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 5¢ | $3,459 | $10,689 | +$7,230 (+209%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 9¢ | $1,372 | $7,288 | +$5,916 (+431%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 9¢ | $1,208 | $6,195 | +$4,987 (+413%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $2,968 | $3,651 | +$683 (+23%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $2,968 | $2,048 | −$920 (-31%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $834 | $1,226 | +$392 (+47%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 5¢ | $343 | $938 | +$594 (+173%) |
| Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $30,082 | $903 | −$29,180 (-97%) |
| Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $30,082 | $903 | −$29,180 (-97%) |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $30,082 | $903 | −$29,180 (-97%) |
| Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $26,566 | $797 | −$25,769 (-97%) |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $26,566 | $797 | −$25,769 (-97%) |
| Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $25,899 | $777 | −$25,122 (-97%) |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $25,899 | $777 | −$25,122 (-97%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $25,899 | $777 | −$25,122 (-97%) |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $25,899 | $777 | −$25,122 (-97%) |
| Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $25,382 | $762 | −$24,621 (-97%) |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $25,382 | $762 | −$24,621 (-97%) |
| Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $23,793 | $714 | −$23,079 (-97%) |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $1,618 | $631 | −$987 (-61%) |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $834 | $526 | −$309 (-37%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $311 | $271 | −$40 (-13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $15,478 | −$30,082 | -194% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $15,478 | −$30,082 | -194% |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $83,800 | −$83,383 | -100% |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $186,960 | −$161,795 | -86% |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $89,300 | −$88,823 | -100% |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $50,050 | −$49,633 | -99% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -97.4% | -97.7% | 0% | 0% | -94.6% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -97.4% | -97.7% | 0% | 0% | -94.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -97.4% | -97.7% | 0% | 0% | -94.6% |
| all | 6 | -97.4% | -97.7% | 0% | 0% | -94.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -97.7% | 0% | -94.6% |
| 10% | -97.9% | 0% | -95.1% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -98.1% | 0% | -95.6% |
| 20% | -98.3% | 0% | -96.0% |