Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x55ed…9ba4 sports 7 markets active 1d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$236 (+39%) realized +$236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$161
sports 31% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +38.6% +25.4% 71% 43% +23.6%
≤30d 7 +38.6% +25.4% 71% 43% +23.6%
≤90d 7 +38.6% +25.4% 71% 43% +23.6%
all 7 +38.6% +25.4% 71% 43% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.4% 43% +23.6%
10% +13.4% 43% +11.8%
15% +2.5% 43% +1.0%
20% -7.6% 29% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$10 · ×4.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.98 per $1 lost it wins $11.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$15 -42%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$80 +156%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $231 +$8 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$42 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 34h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 34h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $131 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $55 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $130 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $96 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $133 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records