Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

55 0x55ee…0695 crypto 25 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$23 (-16%) realized −$23 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%8W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day25.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-26.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-19.1%	-26.8%	35%	35%	-27.5%
≤30d	23	-19.1%	-26.8%	35%	35%	-27.5%
≤90d	23	-19.1%	-26.8%	35%	35%	-27.5%
all	23	-19.1%	-26.8%	35%	35%	-27.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-26.8%	35%	-27.5%
10% ← realistic here	-33.8%	35%	-34.5%
15%	-40.2%	30%	-40.8%
20%	-46.1%	26%	-46.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +31% → late -65% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized−$23

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses8 / 15

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage2d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day25.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	12¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	15¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 16	$15	−$7	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$4	+$1	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$4	-73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$10	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$6	+112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 15	$10	−$7	-65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$9	+$8	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$13	+252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$4	-80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$11	+205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$4	+$3	+86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$0	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	76¢	$4	23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$4	23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$6	23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	36¢	$4	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Up	12¢	$1	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$10	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$0	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$10	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$11	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	SELL Up	18¢	$4	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$10	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$5	24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$8	27h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	61¢	$5	27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	9¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$5	30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$4	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$16	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$5	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.60 · official $2.60 (match) · 54 history records