Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f0…6d87 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized +$31 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$24
sports 49% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.7% +5.6% 36% 36% -12.1%
≤30d 11 +16.7% +5.6% 36% 36% -12.1%
≤90d 11 +16.7% +5.6% 36% 36% -12.1%
all 11 +16.7% +5.6% 36% 36% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 36% -12.1%
10% -4.5% 36% -20.5%
15% -13.8% 36% -28.2%
20% -22.2% 36% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 12¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-68%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 6¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$17 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$31 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$32 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 41¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.38 · official $36.33 · 31 history records