Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x55f3…cada politics 115 markets active 3d ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28,752 (+6%) realized +$24,736 · open +$4,016
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate67%71W / 35L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$3,929per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$54,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$1,121
14 days+$1,368
30 days+$906
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$14,166
world 34% +$12,097
other 14% −$20
economics 4% +$591
sports 2% +$1,991
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.1% +15.0% 100% 33% +0.0%
≤30d 8 +5.4% -4.6% 75% 38% -5.5%
≤90d 22 +0.3% -9.2% 73% 32% -1.9%
all 106 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 30% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 30% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 19% -12.7%
15% -25.3% 11% -21.2%
20% -32.6% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$4,612) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$529 vs −$365 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$54,452
Realized+$24,736
Unrealized+$4,016
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses71 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)106 / 115
History coverage656d
Avg bet$3,929
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $26,237 $26,446 +$209 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $9,445 $12,069 +$2,624 (+28%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5,046 $5,131 +$85 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $4,764 $4,786 +$22 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $2,838 $3,187 +$349 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $802 $1,434 +$632 (+79%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $905 $977 +$72 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $238 $228 −$9 (-4%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $161 $194 +$33 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,395 +$350 +10%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6,576 +$358 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $631 +$413 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $510 +$244 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$3 +12%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $5,300 −$322 -6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $343 −$331 -96%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $3,766 +$190 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $1,741 +$34 +2%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $4,653 +$566 +12%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $2,259 −$872 -39%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 05 $979 +$15 +2%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $1,014 −$1,005 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $33,387 +$4,987 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $4,000 +$240 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 05 $4,746 +$463 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 05 $7,019 −$163 -2%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 04 $1,000 +$47 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 03 $2,793 −$85 -3%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 01 $2,770 +$17 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $11,851 +$3,005 +25%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 26 $902 +$278 +31%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $30,694 +$2,791 +9%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $4,820 −$224 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 18 $1,084 −$807 -74%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Mar 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Mar 18 $639 −$379 -59%
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municip Mar 16 $553 +$418 +76%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Mar 06 $240 +$4 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $13,175 +$17 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 02 $10,604 +$122 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 28 $3,506 +$23 +1%
ICE forced to unmask by February 28? Feb 28 $1,800 +$78 +4%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $17,820 +$555 +3%
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by Feb 28 $3,911 +$355 +9%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Feb 27 $321 −$8 -2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $6,880 −$24 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $3,004 −$8 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $21 −$16 -78%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $17,414 +$723 +4%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 07 $11,549 −$1,107 -10%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Feb 05 $802 −$17 -2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 05 $1,504 +$512 +34%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 04 $1,802 +$2,505 +139%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Feb 01 $3,995 +$303 +8%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $4,793 −$20 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 27 $9,081 +$432 +5%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Jan 27 $1,295 −$18 -1%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 27 $612 +$118 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $4,770 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,076 4d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 94¢ $115 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 93¢ $357 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $475 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $158 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4,889 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5,050 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,000 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $967 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,009 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $957 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 95¢ $388 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $443 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,707 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3,124 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,072 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $246 6d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $261 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $385 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $547 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $238 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $247 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $252 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $510 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $471 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,451.81 · official $54,451.84 (match) · 1203 history records