Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x55f4…959c
sports · 792 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$2,440 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,469 · open +$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$233
Realized−$2,469
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses282 / 479
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)761 / 792
History coverage603d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 18 History 761 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 50¢ 81¢ $35 $57 +$22 (+64%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 32¢ 68¢ $25 $52 +$27 (+110%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 34¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+363%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-81%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 61¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 56¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 40¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 18¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29? Up 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. 49ers 49ers 36¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Buffalo beat Los Angeles R in Super Bowl LX? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chiefs vs. Broncos Chiefs 54¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will BUF/SF/NE/CHI win their 2026 NFL Divisional Round games? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Ohio State (-14.5) Illinois 51¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen Jun 09 $10 +$4 +37%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 12 $1 +$3 +335%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 12 $10 +$5 +46%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $2 +$25 +1249%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $30 +$19 +62%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Apr 01 $1 $0 +16%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Apr 01 $1 $0 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Apr 01 $1 +$2 +245%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 01 $5 +$1 +28%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 $1 +$15 +1530%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 08 $11 −$11 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 07 $1 +$2 +156%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 07 $5 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4? Mar 07 $2 +$6 +284%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 53% +$690
other 23% −$1,742
politics 15% −$1,545
world 5% +$5
crypto 2% +$33
finance 1% +$125
economics 1% −$3
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% −$2
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $2 37m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $5 43m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 73¢ $2 48m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 36¢ $1 50m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $4 52m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 11¢ $5 56m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $1 59m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 35¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 68¢ $2 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $5 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $5 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY 48¢ $10 36h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17 BUY 50¢ $20 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 26¢ $2 36h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 36h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY $1 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $1 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +39.1% +25.8% 73% 73% +37.7%
≤30d 11 +39.1% +25.8% 73% 73% +37.7%
≤90d 39 +57.4% +42.4% 46% 46% +23.0%
all 761 -3.0% -12.3% 37% 37% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 37% -28.6%
10% -20.7% 36% -35.5%
15% -28.3% 33% -41.7%
20% -35.4% 29% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.56 · official $292.57 · 2208 history records