Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
55 0x55f5…1e72 sports 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$239 (+4%) realized +$216 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$321
14 days−$95
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -13.0% -21.3% 40% 29% -18.0%
≤30d 89 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 35% -7.3%
≤90d 89 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 35% -7.3%
all 89 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 35% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 35% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 33% -16.2%
15% -25.2% 29% -24.3%
20% -32.5% 24% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 50
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage17d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 58¢ 98¢ $35 $59 +$24 (+68%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ 16¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $88 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$4 +51%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$15 -39%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$31 +131%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$55 -54%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$1 -1%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$33 +109%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $117 +$26 +22%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$30 -72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $81 −$30 -37%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $81 +$50 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $141 −$32 -23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $82 +$2 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$8 -21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$25 +63%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $121 −$42 -35%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $66 +$15 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$21 -51%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $80 −$7 -8%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $71 +$39 +55%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$42 -59%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $120 +$58 +48%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $99 −$43 -44%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$51 -84%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $81 −$43 -53%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $133 +$36 +27%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$20 -48%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$41 -41%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $224 −$39 -17%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$12 +39%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$4 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$2 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$6 -15%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$102 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $6 0m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 58¢ $40 17m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $39 19m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $41 19m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $11 49m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $8 49m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 34¢ $20 50m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 20¢ $18 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $28 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $52 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $41 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $11 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 66¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 66¢ $4 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 9¢ $0 38h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $28 39h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $30 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 4¢ $3 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 23¢ $0 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 23¢ $20 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 23¢ $0 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 41¢ $20 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 36¢ $18 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 68¢ $0 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 68¢ $3 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 68¢ $27 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 66¢ $30 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $64 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 62¢ $10 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 42¢ $20 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.56 · official $115.56 (match) · 450 history records