Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f5…f204 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$66
sports 16% +$58
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -11.6% -20.1% 39% 37% -9.4%
≤30d 41 -11.6% -20.1% 39% 37% -9.4%
≤90d 41 -11.6% -20.1% 39% 37% -9.4%
all 41 -11.6% -20.1% 39% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 37% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 32% -18.1%
15% -34.7% 29% -26.0%
20% -41.1% 29% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$39 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 51¢ 14¢ $20 $6 −$15 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$123 +124%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$83 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $209 +$117 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$25 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$22 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$158 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$93 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$168 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$53 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $166 +$98 +59%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $72 −$11 -15%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $41 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $5 +$18 +348%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $41 −$11 -27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $84 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $133 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $88 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $100 23m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $84 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $170 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.81 · official $14.62 · 112 history records