trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $111 | +$39 | +35% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $31 | +$17 | +54% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$2 | -59% |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $12 | −$12 | -98% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | May 16 | $9 | +$15 | +164% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline | Jan 13 | $1 | +$1 | +70% |
| Chargers vs. Patriots | Jan 13 | $3 | +$2 | +67% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | Jan 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Thunder | Jan 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? | Jan 12 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| 49ers vs. Eagles | Jan 12 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 08 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Leavitt say "Epstein" or "Hoax" during the next White House press | Dec 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Leavitt say "President" 69+ times during the next White House pre | Dec 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor | Dec 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" during the Hanukkah Reception event | Dec 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during the Hanukkah Reception even | Dec 17 | $2 | +$2 | +79% |
| Flyers vs. Hurricanes | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | -8% |
| Titans vs. 49ers | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Colts vs. Seahawks | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +23% |
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 60% | 40% | +14.4% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +17.3% | +6.2% | 67% | 50% | +21.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +17.3% | +6.2% | 67% | 50% | +21.0% |
| all | 23 | -24.2% | -31.4% | 43% | 30% | -2.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.4% | 30% | -2.1% |
| 10% | -37.9% | 30% | -11.5% |
| 15% | -43.9% | 22% | -20.0% |
| 20% | -49.4% | 22% | -27.9% |