Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x55fb…8c38 crypto 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%372W / 8L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$60
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% −$14
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 78 -0.9% -10.4% 96% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 214 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 380 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses372 / 8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)380 / 385
History coverage163d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $258 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $276 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $250 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.14 · official $305.14 (match) · 1000 history records