Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55fb…07e1 crypto 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$646 (-9%) realized −$825 · open +$179
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%70W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$32
sports 31% −$597
world 14% +$10
finance 12% −$52
crypto 8% −$123
tech 2% +$17
politics 2% +$5
culture 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -49.6% -54.4% 0% 0% -54.4%
≤30d 13 -37.8% -43.7% 23% 15% -68.0%
≤90d 84 -52.7% -57.2% 26% 10% -30.5%
all 155 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 26% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 26% -24.4%
10% -23.2% 24% -31.7%
15% -30.6% 21% -38.3%
20% -37.4% 18% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$1,622
Realized−$825
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses70 / 85
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions8
Markets (closed)155 / 164
History coverage597d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $1,012 $1,212 +$200 (+20%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $208 $221 +$13 (+6%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $72 $81 +$9 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $80 $56 −$24 (-30%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes $18 $9 −$9 (-51%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 −$51 -50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $177 −$176 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 −$9 -21%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $54 −$16 -29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $34 −$1 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 11 $425 +$10 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $144 +$17 +12%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Apr 25 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $124 −$7 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $40 +$6 +15%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 19 $269 −$74 -27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 16 $22 +$6 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $56 −$6 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 14 $57 +$1 +2%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 14 $12 +$1 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senat Apr 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e Apr 12 $16 −$4 -25%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $228 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Akimbo Esports vs InControl (BO3) - CCT North America Apr 12 $346 −$218 -63%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs Apr 09 $447 +$3 +1%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Barça eSports (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 08 $229 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 P Apr 08 $178 +$11 +6%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $100 +$37 +37%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5) Apr 05 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $296 −$216 -73%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 14? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Apr 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 10? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $52 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $177 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 14d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $31 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 15d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $10 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 17d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 19d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 19d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 19d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No $11 20d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $96 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 22d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 23d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $57 23d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 24d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 25d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 25d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,622.14 · official $1,622.14 (match) · 536 history records