Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x55fb…fe7b sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,763 (+13%) realized +$11,546 · open +$217
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%89W / 125L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,998
7 days+$7,954
14 days+$7,954
30 days+$7,954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$4,691
other 27% +$7,917
world 1% −$749
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +51.6% +37.1% 79% 79% +41.1%
≤30d 19 +51.6% +37.1% 79% 79% +41.1%
≤90d 38 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% -4.6%
all 214 +6.8% -3.4% 42% 41% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 41% +2.7%
10% -12.6% 40% -7.2%
15% -21.1% 39% -16.1%
20% -28.8% 37% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +62% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$583 vs −$327 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$1,828
Realized+$11,546
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses89 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions5
Markets (closed)214 / 219
History coverage166d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 47¢ 74¢ $400 $633 +$234 (+59%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 60¢ $413 $416 +$4 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $320 $317 −$3 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $279 $276 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $200 $185 −$14 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,999 +$2,101 +105%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $159 −$159 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 −$249 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,757 +$1,013 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,321 +$1,029 +78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $657 −$648 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $305 +$285 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $256 −$252 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $255 +$878 +344%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $259 +$241 +93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,116 +$1,041 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $496 +$304 +61%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $662 +$238 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,221 +$505 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,101 +$301 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $433 +$387 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $99 +$82 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $373 +$371 +99%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $502 +$485 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $299 −$114 -38%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $262 +$338 +129%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $297 +$348 +117%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $302 −$294 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $300 −$297 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $326 −$320 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 17 $200 +$109 +55%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $145 −$129 -89%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 25 $10 +$25 +257%
Flyers vs. Kings Mar 22 $963 −$963 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $741 −$525 -71%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs McCartney Kessler Mar 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 19 $216 −$216 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-19.5) Mar 19 $414 −$414 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 19 $2,453 −$2,453 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-7.5) Mar 19 $1,113 −$1,113 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-23.5) Mar 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $551 −$106 -19%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 18 $264 −$264 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 18 $122 −$14 -12%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Mar 18 $836 −$836 -100%
Jazz vs. 76ers Mar 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-02-14? Mar 18 $146 −$146 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Mar 18 $512 −$512 -100%
Cherbourg: Remy Bertola vs August Holmgren Mar 18 $301 −$301 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Mar 18 $324 −$324 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $284 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $418 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $324 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $204 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $406 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,999 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $23 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $82 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $9 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $23 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $6 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $1 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $3 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $12 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $253 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $608 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1,149 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $657 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 52¢ $422 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $899 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $256 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $305 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $259 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 22¢ $255 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,116 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $496 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $662 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 81¢ $2,221 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 78¢ $1,101 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 52¢ $433 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,828.17 · official $1,849.42 · 1099 history records