Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x55fd…9e78 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,020 (+49%) realized +$1,020 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$1,021
other 19% $0
world 9% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.6%
all 11 +27.0% +14.9% 64% 18% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 18% +34.7%
10% +3.9% 18% +21.8%
15% -6.2% 18% +10.0%
20% -15.4% 18% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$0 · ×406.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×711.67 per $1 lost it wins $711.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1,020
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage102d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 27-May 3? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $392 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $193 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $7 +$14 +204%
Will Charl Schwartzel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 6? Mar 12 $7 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $1,092 +$1,008 +92%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.87 · official $5.87 (match) · 23 history records