Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x55fd…2c99 sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,426 (-10%) realized −$1,385 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%22W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$27
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$1,850
other 41% −$343
culture 7% +$1,035
crypto 3% −$60
economics 1% −$115
world 1% −$42
politics 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -72.5% -75.1% 0% 0% -76.8%
≤90d 22 +41.2% +27.8% 23% 23% -6.7%
all 92 -7.0% -15.8% 24% 24% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 24% -20.5%
10% -23.9% 24% -28.1%
15% -31.3% 23% -35.0%
20% -38.0% 22% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$96 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$1,819
Realized−$1,385
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses22 / 70
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage319d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $467 $476 +$9 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $462 $392 −$69 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $294 $370 +$76 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $352 $292 −$60 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $286 $289 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $153 −$27 -18%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $141 −$138 -98%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $51 +$47 +91%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $52 +$948 +1810%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $230 −$11 -5%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $120 −$103 -86%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will AFC Unirea Slobozia vs. ASC Oțelul Galați end in a draw? Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5) Mar 22 $100 +$95 +95%
Will Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Mar 22 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Mar 22 $195 −$194 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Mar 21 $100 +$211 +211%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $140 −$140 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will AC Monza vs. Venezia FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $350 +$778 +222%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Mar 21 $187 −$187 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Mar 16 $63 +$297 +471%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $340 +$286 +84%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars? Mar 16 $380 +$477 +125%
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars? Mar 16 $205 −$25 -12%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $70 −$17 -24%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $66 −$25 -38%
Will Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Mar 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 07 $179 −$179 -100%
Will US Avellino 1912 vs. Calcio Padova end in a draw? Mar 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Feb 02 $473 −$2 -0%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Gaziantep FK end in a draw? Jan 31 $176 −$176 -100%
Will TreVeyon Henderson be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Y Jan 20 $72 −$63 -88%
Will Tyler Shough be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South? Jan 05 $200 +$343 +171%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 01 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Jaxson Dart be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 01 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Ashton Jeanty be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Modena FC 2018 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Dec 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $353 −$353 -100%
Spread: Vikings (-2.5) Dec 22 $162 +$144 +89%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $250 −$206 -83%
Will Burgos CF vs. Albacete Balompié end in a draw? Dec 08 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? Dec 07 $67 +$23 +34%
Spread: Western Michigan (-2.5) Dec 06 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Alaves vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? Dec 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Everton vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Dec 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Dec 06 $100 +$222 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $93 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $98 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $98 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $97 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $199 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $99 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $132 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $132 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $245 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $126 7d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $39 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $123 26d
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $678 28d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 31d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 51¢ $51 32d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $52 32d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $219 46d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $20 65d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes $17 65d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $160 68d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $100 70d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $30 72d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $100 72d
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,819.42 · official $1,819.97 (match) · 475 history records