Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55fe…1e84 crypto 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%108W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +7.6% -2.7% 79% 76% -0.7%
≤30d 170 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 60% -10.0%
≤90d 170 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 60% -10.0%
all 170 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 60% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 60% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 47% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 26% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses108 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage21d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 587 history records