Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5605…a9ef sports 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,968 (+2%) realized +$10,178 · open −$1,210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate91%217W / 21L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,463per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Fees−$301est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$19,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$585
7 days+$4,712
14 days+$8,918
30 days+$10,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$4,499
other 30% +$2,019
world 19% +$1,337
politics 8% +$976
crypto 2% +$448
tech 0% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +2.1% -7.7% 91% 16% -7.0%
≤30d 238 +1.2% -8.5% 91% 16% -6.8%
≤90d 238 +1.2% -8.5% 91% 16% -6.8%
all 238 +1.2% -8.5% 91% 16% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 16% -6.8%
10% -17.2% 5% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 2% -23.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,942) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$322 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$19,325
Realized+$10,178
Unrealized−$1,210
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses217 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$301
Open positions17
Markets (closed)238 / 255
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,463
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 93¢ 100¢ $6,770 $7,248 +$478 (+7%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Paraguay 95¢ 100¢ $2,842 $2,995 +$154 (+5%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 83¢ 100¢ $1,916 $2,303 +$386 (+20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 61¢ 68¢ $1,250 $1,376 +$126 (+10%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 100¢ $930 $999 +$69 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $976 $978 +$2 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $690 $716 +$26 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 70¢ 32¢ $1,392 $650 −$742 (-53%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $575 $598 +$23 (+4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 89¢ 100¢ $445 $500 +$55 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $315 $293 −$22 (-7%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 71¢ 25¢ $586 $208 −$378 (-64%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 40¢ $430 $202 −$228 (-53%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $121 $123 +$2 (+1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 67¢ 8¢ $500 $63 −$436 (-87%)
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists No 96¢ 100¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+3%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 62¢ 2¢ $596 $23 −$573 (-96%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 29 $3,982 −$70 -2%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $151 +$49 +32%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 29 $36 +$2 +4%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $440 +$59 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 29 $811 +$20 +2%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $1,991 +$42 +2%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $3,158 +$416 +13%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $7,115 +$347 +5%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $521 −$519 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 29 $4,014 +$177 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $348 −$348 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 29 $9,008 −$1,046 -12%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 29 $50 +$1 +1%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 28 $679 +$21 +3%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $2,674 +$106 +4%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $92 +$5 +5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6,174 +$49 +1%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $209 +$7 +3%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $709 +$166 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $3,161 +$13 +0%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $4,068 +$258 +6%
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $49 +$1 +2%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1,640 +$92 +6%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,607 +$520 +32%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $4,867 +$233 +5%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $776 +$78 +10%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $474 +$25 +5%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $82 +$3 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,389 +$53 +2%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 27 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $294 +$9 +3%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $3,019 +$143 +5%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,660 +$539 +20%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $3,335 +$165 +5%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $112 +$21 +18%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $41 +$9 +22%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $744 +$56 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $972 +$28 +3%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $2,435 +$541 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,868 +$232 +6%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $482 +$18 +4%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $590 +$10 +2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $702 +$74 +11%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,135 +$65 +6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $1,954 +$46 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $3,152 +$148 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 62¢ $93 13m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 62¢ $36 13m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 62¢ $181 13m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 94¢ $472 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $950 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $1,148 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $130 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $648 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 89¢ $446 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $166 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $179 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $651 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $70 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $2,402 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $359 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $105 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 94¢ $9 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 94¢ $460 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $434 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $640 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 95¢ $710 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $113 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $47 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $940 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $140 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,842 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,324.60 · official $19,406.84 (match) · 1850 history records