trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? | No | 53¢ | 52¢ | $53 | $52 | −$0 (-1%) |
| United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 | Over | 39¢ | 38¢ | $36 | $36 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $31 | $30 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Rockets vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 48¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Mavericks | Rockets | 77¢ | 0¢ | $49 | $0 | −$49 (-100%) |
| Kings vs. Warriors | Kings | 15¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Jazz | Rockets | 20¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 38¢ | 0¢ | $19 | $0 | −$19 (-100%) |
| Pacers vs. Bucks | Pacers | 50¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Suns | Suns | 25¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | South Africa | 60¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Suns vs. Rockets | Suns | 18¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-08? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Clippers vs. Magic | Clippers | 33¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | Wizards | 25¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Over | 44¢ | 0¢ | $43 | $0 | −$43 (-100%) |
| Mavericks vs. Kings | Kings | 37¢ | 0¢ | $18 | $0 | −$18 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico leading at halftime? | Jun 11 | $55 | +$55 | +101% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $44 | −$43 | -98% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 15 | $19 | −$19 | -98% |
| Rockets vs. Suns | Apr 08 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $20 | +$28 | +138% |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $127 | +$19 | +15% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Mar 16 | $29 | +$20 | +70% |
| Warriors vs. Thunder | Mar 08 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Clippers vs. Grizzlies | Mar 08 | $10 | +$7 | +72% |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | Mar 01 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | Feb 28 | $30 | +$20 | +67% |
| Warriors vs. Lakers | Feb 08 | $28 | +$24 | +85% |
| Pacers vs. Bucks | Feb 07 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Jan 17 | $27 | +$25 | +92% |
| Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 10 | $15 | +$35 | +233% |
| Kings vs. Warriors | Jan 10 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Kings | Jan 07 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-08? | Dec 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Dec 08 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Mavericks | Dec 06 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Rockets | Dec 05 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Rockets | Dec 03 | $5 | +$12 | +245% |
| Rockets vs. Jazz | Dec 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Magic | Nov 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Cavaliers | Nov 19 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers | Nov 19 | $17 | +$22 | +127% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -33.0% | -39.4% | 33% | 33% | -32.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -49.7% | -54.5% | 25% | 25% | -40.2% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 50% | 50% | -8.2% |
| all | 27 | -9.0% | -17.6% | 44% | 44% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.6% | 44% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -25.5% | 37% | -20.2% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 37% | -27.9% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 37% | -35.0% |