Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5606…676f other 1643 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$260 (-6%) realized −$245 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%615W / 1184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$377
14 days−$377
30 days−$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$89
sports 28% −$234
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -88.8% -89.8% 4% 4% -90.2%
≤30d 251 -75.6% -77.9% 9% 9% -76.3%
≤90d 734 -27.7% -34.5% 26% 26% -33.4%
all 1799 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 33% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 33% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 32% -31.0%
15% -39.5% 29% -37.6%
20% -45.5% 25% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$245
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses615 / 1184
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1799 / 1643
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1799 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 44¢ 55¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Alexis Mac Allister score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 468 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Parma win on 2025-11-08? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Bastia vs. Grenoble Foot 38 end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will NEC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-16? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -58%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -112%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-16? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-12-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -82%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-29? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alanyaspor vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-29? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-12-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Panathinaikos Jun 15 $1 −$3 -191%
Will Jagiellonia Białystok win on 2025-11-27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2025-12-07? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AEK win on 2025-12-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -169%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea vs. Wolves end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -92%
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-12-07? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-12-11? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 56m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 37h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $3 38h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $1 47h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $2 47h
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos SELL Panathinaikos 13¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos SELL Panathinaikos 11¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos SELL Panathinaikos 9¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 4¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 7¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 11¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 14¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 15¢ $1 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 15¢ $1 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $3 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 19¢ $0 2d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 19¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.58 · official $75.58 (match) · 3500 history records