Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5606…33a2 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%70W / 1L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
other 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 71 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses70 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage234d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on April 27? Apr 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 08 $105 $0 +0%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 30? Apr 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 22? Mar 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? Mar 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 12? Mar 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $103 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Mar 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 02 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 30 Jan 31 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on January Jan 24 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on January 13? Jan 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $97 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $102 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $5 8d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $102 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $105 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $103 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 73d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 95¢ $3 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $105 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $105 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $106 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $101 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $106 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $106 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $101 93d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $2 97d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $108 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $105 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $106 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $103 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $102 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? BUY No 100¢ $101 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.10 · official $109.10 (match) · 146 history records