Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x560b…5187 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$799 (-6%) realized −$799 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$857per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$829
other 9% +$2
tech 8% +$1
politics 7% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +4.5% -5.4% 91% 27% -17.3%
all 14 +3.7% -6.2% 93% 21% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 21% -15.4%
10% -15.2% 14% -23.5%
15% -23.4% 14% -30.9%
20% -30.9% 7% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$1,861 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage104d
Avg bet$857
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $84 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $181 +$133 +73%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 15 $181 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $1,866 −$1,861 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Apr 21 $1,531 +$334 +22%
Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Apr 11 $976 +$1 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $1,036 +$495 +48%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $1,035 +$1 +0%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $984 +$50 +5%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $980 +$5 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Apr 01 $979 +$1 +0%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $965 +$14 +1%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $963 +$2 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 17 $962 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $129 1h
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $84 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $181 35d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $181 47d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 92¢ $1,866 68d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY Weibo Gaming 82¢ $1,531 69d
Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $976 81d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 67¢ $1,036 85d
Celtics vs. Bucks BUY Celtics 100¢ $1,035 85d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 95¢ $984 86d
Celtics vs. Heat BUY Celtics 99¢ $980 87d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $979 94d
Lakers vs. Pacers BUY Lakers 99¢ $965 94d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen BUY No 100¢ $963 101d
Trail Blazers vs. Nets BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $962 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.94 · official $128.94 (match) · 30 history records