Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x560b…af09
politics · 18 markets active 870d ago
0.0score
+$101,625 +86%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$101,625 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 0 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91,423
7 days+$91,423
14 days+$91,423
30 days+$91,423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a Bored Ape appear during a SuperBowl LVI Commercial or Halftime Show? No 50¢ $386 $1 −$385 (-100%)
NBA: Will the Clippers beat the Trail Blazers by more than 3.5 points in their December 6 matchup? No 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Warriors beat the Thunder by more than 12.5 points in their October 30th matchup? No $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? No 27¢ $4,398 $0 −$4,398 (-100%)
NFL: Will the Steelers beat the Bears by more than 7.5 points on November 8th? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
NCAAB: Who will win Purdue Boilermakers vs. Texas Longhorns, scheduled for March 20, 8:40 PM ET? Texas Longhorns 40¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
NBA: Will the Heat beat the Pistons by more than 9.5 points in their November 23 matchup? Yes 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
NBA: Who will win the Knicks v. Hornets game on November 12th? Knicks $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1? No 94¢ $6,700 $0 −$6,700 (-100%)
NFL: Will the Buccaneers beat the Saints by more than 4.5 points in their October 31st matchup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Will the Celtics beat the Wizards by more than 4.5 points in their October 27th matchup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
NBA: Will the Bucks beat the 76ers by more than 6.5 points in their February 17 (8.30 PM ET) matchup? Yes 50¢ $1,390 $0 −$1,390 (-100%)
Gambit (-10 rounds) v. Entropiq | September 4 Gambit (-10) 27¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Pistons beat the Magic by more than 5.5 points in their October 30th matchup? No $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Will Medina Spirit be disqualified from the 2021 Kentucky Derby by October 15? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the United States average less than 75k Covid cases by November 15? No $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the UK be greater than 44,000 on November 8? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
NBA: Will the Pacers beat the Hawks by more than 1.5 points in their December 1 matchup? Yes 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
NBA: Will the Wizards beat the Pelicans by more than 2.5 points in their November 15th matchup? No 43¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
NBA: Will the Nets beat the Pistons by more than 11.5 points in their October 31st matchup? No $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
NBA: Will the sum of points in Kings v 76ers be greater than 222.5? Yes 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? No 12¢ $536 $0 −$536 (-100%)
(In-Game Trading) Will the Bills or Chiefs win their week five matchup? Chiefs 31¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Nick Diaz or Robbie Lawler win their UFC fight on September 25th? Diaz $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Yes $1,113 $0 −$1,113 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Bored Ape appear during a SuperBowl LVI Commercial or Halftime Jun 12 $386 −$577 -150%
NBA: Will the Clippers beat the Trail Blazers by more than 3.5 points Jun 12 $0 +$3,322 +2308787%
Will the Warriors beat the Thunder by more than 12.5 points in their O Jun 12 $0 +$892 +49532628%
NFL: Will the Steelers beat the Bears by more than 7.5 points on Novem Jun 12 $0 +$239 —%
NCAAB: Who will win Purdue Boilermakers vs. Texas Longhorns, scheduled Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
NBA: Will the Heat beat the Pistons by more than 9.5 points in their N Jun 12 $0 +$7,884 +4559853%
NBA: Who will win the Knicks v. Hornets game on November 12th? Jun 12 $0 −$1,106 -368506133%
Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by Apr Jun 12 $6,700 −$6,700 -100%
NFL: Will the Buccaneers beat the Saints by more than 4.5 points in th Jun 12 $0 +$434 +144522100%
Will the Celtics beat the Wizards by more than 4.5 points in their Oct Jun 12 $0 −$395 -395296200%
NBA: Will the Bucks beat the 76ers by more than 6.5 points in their Fe Jun 12 $1,390 −$1,772 -127%
Gambit (-10 rounds) v. Entropiq | September 4 Jun 12 $0 −$50 -47368%
Will the Pistons beat the Magic by more than 5.5 points in their Octob Jun 12 $0 +$1,032 +172002833%
Will Medina Spirit be disqualified from the 2021 Kentucky Derby by Oct Jun 12 $0 +$2,986 —%
Will the United States average less than 75k Covid cases by November 1 Jun 12 $0 +$402 +11833950%
Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the UK be greater than 44,000 Jun 12 $0 +$29,514 +1967610287%
NBA: Will the Pacers beat the Hawks by more than 1.5 points in their D Jun 12 $0 −$254 -293868%
NBA: Will the Wizards beat the Pelicans by more than 2.5 points in the Jun 12 $0 −$1,835 -515464%
NBA: Will the Nets beat the Pistons by more than 11.5 points in their Jun 12 $0 +$1,746 +349128660%
NBA: Will the sum of points in Kings v 76ers be greater than 222.5? Jun 12 $0 +$802 +1044541%
(In-Game Trading) Will the Bills or Chiefs win their week five matchup Jun 12 $0 −$6,535 -3816995%
Will Nick Diaz or Robbie Lawler win their UFC fight on September 25th? Jun 12 $0 +$803 —%
Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average on November 17th be higher than i Jun 12 $0 +$32,561 +4070063375%
NFL: Will the Colts beat the Titans by more than 2.5 points in their O Jun 12 $0 −$755 -310498%
NFL: Will the Patriots beat the Panthers by more than 3.5 points in th Jun 12 $0 +$425 +47236600%
Will annual inflation in the European Union be 5.5% or more in January Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
(In-Game Trading) Who will win the Hawks vs. Mavericks game on October Jun 12 $0 +$790 —%
(In-Game Trading, Low Fee Promotion) Who will win the Trail Blazers v. Jun 12 $0 +$2,074 —%
(In-Game Trading) Who will win the Suns v. Lakers on October 22nd? Jun 12 $0 −$3,330 -665991140%
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on September 30, 2021? Jun 12 $0 +$1,496 —%
Will $MATIC (Polygon) be above $1.60 on November 24? Jun 12 $0 −$210 -49268%
NBA: Will the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers by more than 7.5 points in t Jun 12 $0 −$155 -236647%
NBA: Will the 76ers beat the Trail Blazers by more than 5.5 points in Jun 12 $0 −$304 -304130800%
Will Liquid or FURIA win their ESL matchup on September 5? Jun 12 $0 +$6,044 +6044481800%
(In-Game Trading) Will the Chiefs or the Ravens win their NFL week 2 m Jun 12 $0 +$880 +12565396%
Who will win the Wizards v. Celtics game on October 30th? Jun 12 $0 +$696 +232140533%
NBA: Who will win Bulls vs. Clippers, scheduled for March 31, 8:00 PM Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
NFL: Will the Bengals beat the Jets by more than 10.5 points in their Jun 12 $0 +$240 —%
Will ApeCoin (APE) reach $20 by May 4? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
NFL: Will the 49ers beat the Bears by more than 3.5 points in their Oc Jun 12 $0 +$121 +120966300%
Will the price of $BTC be above $33,000 on February 1st, 2022? Jun 12 $218 −$218 -100%
2022 NBA Playoffs: Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Jun 12 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Will a team from North America get out of groups at the 2021 LoL World Jun 12 $0 +$10,212 +10211570000%
Will the Buccaneers beat the Bears by more than 12.5 points in their O Jun 12 $0 +$2,501 +1250546850%
Will the Yankees or the Red Sox win their game on September 26th? Jun 12 $0 −$100 -105359%
Will FaZe or Na’Vi win their ESL matchup on August 31? Jun 12 $0 −$18 -60692%
Who will win the Suns v. Trail Blazers game on October 23rd? Jun 12 $0 +$2,179 —%
Who will win the Kings v. Pelicans game on October 29th? Jun 12 $0 +$607 +86692314%
(In-game Trading) Will the Rams beat the Seahawks by more than 2.5 poi Jun 12 $0 −$908 -1945089%
Will the FDA approve any COVID-19 vaccination for children under 12 by Jun 12 $0 +$2,561 +12255080%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$230
world 32% +$13,825
politics 18% −$1,586
crypto 2% −$1,913
tech 0% −$324
weather 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $57 869d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $0 869d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $90 869d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $60 869d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $17 870d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $39 870d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $25 870d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $42 870d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $60 870d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $150 870d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $60 870d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 80¢ $204 871d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes $350 877d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 100¢ $218 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 100¢ $108 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 100¢ $361 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 100¢ $249 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 100¢ $498 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 100¢ $498 878d
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? SELL No 100¢ $589 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 99¢ $3,468 878d
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? SELL No 100¢ $5,737 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 99¢ $1,449 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY No 99¢ $3,501 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY Yes 30¢ $900 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY Yes 38¢ $253 878d
Will Haley place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,267 878d
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? SELL No 100¢ $9,990 878d
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? SELL No 100¢ $9,990 878d
Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? SELL No 100¢ $14,985 878d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+616.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 24 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 24 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 119 +691.8% +616.4% 55% 50% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +616.4% 50% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here +547.8% 50% -13.6%
15% +485.2% 50% -21.9%
20% +427.8% 49% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.68 (match) · 1818 history records