Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x560c…e0ca crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$2
tech 17% −$5
economics 13% −$4
crypto 9% −$4
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.7% -20.1% 11% 11% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.8% -16.6% 21% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -8.8% -17.5% 35% 13% -9.9%
all 56 -3.2% -12.5% 43% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 11% -9.9%
10% -20.8% 7% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 5% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage230d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $320 $320 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -18%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $300 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $337 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $300 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 21 $300 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $270 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 06 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +50%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $40 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $1 $0 +29%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $91 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 21 $70 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Dec 03 $4 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $300 32h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $288 32h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 32h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 32h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $300 2d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $300 2d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $300 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $300 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $301 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $300 20d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $279 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 20d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $280 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $270 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $270 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.