Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x560d…1028 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$234 (+74%) realized +$213 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$178
14 days+$179
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$222
crypto 19% −$6
sports 10% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +126.1% +104.6% 100% 100% +104.6%
≤30d 13 +8.2% -2.1% 54% 54% +69.9%
≤90d 24 -25.7% -32.7% 38% 38% +59.9%
all 24 -25.7% -32.7% 38% 38% +59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 38% +59.9%
10% -39.2% 38% +44.6%
15% -45.1% 33% +30.6%
20% -50.4% 33% +17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +77% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$2 · ×15.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.47 per $1 lost it wins $9.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage43d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $32 $53 +$21 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 19 $141 +$178 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $56 +$14 +25%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 05 $26 +$30 +115%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 02 $16 +$10 +63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 17? May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? May 16 $5 −$4 -68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 11-17? May 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 9? May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $32 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $73 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $76 10d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $245 10d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $65 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 14d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 14d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $56 15d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? SELL Yes 52¢ $56 15d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $26 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 19d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up 5¢ $1 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? BUY No 27¢ $1 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 11-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.06 · official $53.06 (match) · 40 history records