Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

56 0x560e…3cc9 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$112 (+8%) realized +$125 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$285per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+15.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+27.5%	+15.3%	75%	75%	-1.6%
≤30d	4	+27.5%	+15.3%	75%	75%	-1.6%
≤90d	4	+27.5%	+15.3%	75%	75%	-1.6%
all	4	+27.5%	+15.3%	75%	75%	-1.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.3%	75%	-1.6%
10%	+4.3%	75%	-11.0%
15%	-5.8%	75%	-19.6%
20%	-15.0%	25%	-27.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$128 vs −$286 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.34 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$300

Realized+$125

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$285

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	60¢	57¢	$314	$300	−$13 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$234	+$88	+38%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Jun 26	$172	+$70	+41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert	Jun 26	$462	−$286	-62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel	Jun 26	$241	+$225	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$317	1h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$234	4h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	71¢	$73	6h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	71¢	$99	6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert	SELL Jack Draper	24¢	$159	6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert	SELL Jack Draper	25¢	$18	6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert	BUY Jack Draper	63¢	$13	7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert	BUY Jack Draper	61¢	$450	7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel	BUY Zizou Bergs	51¢	$6	8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel	BUY Zizou Bergs	51¢	$236	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.48 · official $300.48 (match) · 13 history records