Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x560f…1820 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$18
politics 30% −$14
sports 15% −$8
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage137d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $282 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $227 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $346 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $285 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $210 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $304 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $291 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $265 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $299 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $515 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $444 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $458 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $250 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $258 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 01 $283 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $282 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $435 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $252 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $461 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $673 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $176 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $285 28d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $285 30d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 30d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 31d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 32d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $303 32d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $303 33d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 33d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 34d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 34d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 34d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $243 34d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $243 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $210 35d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 35d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $304 35d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $304 35d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $298 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 422 history records