Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x560f…22c4 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2
other 22% +$7
sports 7% $0
tech 5% +$1
weather 2% −$3
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.4% 14% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 16 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 6% -9.4%
all 41 +14.1% +3.2% 54% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 5% -8.9%
10% -6.7% 2% -17.6%
15% -15.7% 2% -25.6%
20% -24.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage476d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 −$2 -5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $61 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $112 −$4 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $4 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $1 +$5 +578%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 19 $17 −$3 -19%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 19 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? Mar 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 07 $14 +$1 +7%
IUPUI vs. Wright State Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $48 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $49 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $52 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $20 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $52 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 5d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records