Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5615…00d0 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate42%54W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$18
other 26% −$2
politics 17% $0
sports 15% +$13
economics 5% +$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 28 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 61 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 129 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses54 / 75
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage485d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 44¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $165 −$3 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $137 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $90 −$12 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $160 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $58 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $146 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $49 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $42 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $43 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 91¢ $39 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 503 history records