Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5615…df5e sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,054 (+23%) realized +$5,442 · open −$388
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$4,072
crypto 17% +$1,311
sports 17% −$558
politics 1% −$250
world 0% −$97
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -27.7% -34.6% 36% 36% -13.7%
≤30d 14 -27.7% -34.6% 36% 36% -13.7%
≤90d 14 -27.7% -34.6% 36% 36% -13.7%
all 46 +15.8% +4.7% 39% 37% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 37% +12.2%
10% -5.3% 37% +1.5%
15% -14.4% 37% -8.3%
20% -22.8% 30% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +65% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$490 vs −$141 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,442
Unrealized−$388
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage211d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 50¢ $388 $0 −$388 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,111 +$605 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $602 −$594 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $263 −$258 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $267 −$179 -67%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $123 +$227 +184%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $57 −$56 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $245 +$158 +64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $113 +$86 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $180 +$90 +50%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $102 −$18 -18%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $264 +$132 +50%
Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $101 −$96 -95%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 04 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $102 +$146 +142%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 31 $1,564 −$142 -9%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 29 $98 −$81 -82%
Will F1 win Best Score at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards? Dec 28 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 7 Dec 25 $361 −$361 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 7 Dec 25 $73 −$23 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Dec 25 $799 −$799 -100%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? Dec 25 $152 −$61 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $320 −$320 -100%
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? Dec 25 $10,552 +$4,154 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $564 +$36 +6%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 22 $2 +$8 +481%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 22 $350 +$150 +43%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 20 $100 −$30 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 19 $90 +$910 +1011%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 19 $318 +$1,012 +318%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 09 $178 +$102 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 7 Dec 08 $649 +$341 +53%
Nancy Pelosi Index Up or Down: Week of December 1 Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 07 $20 +$22 +108%
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch? Nov 29 $293 +$226 +77%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $607 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 25 $200 +$407 +204%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 19¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 63¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 70¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 70¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 70¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 70¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 70¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $56 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,715 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 64¢ $1,111 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $602 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $33 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $204 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $18 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $49 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 18¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $107 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 61¢ $122 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $83 7h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $350 9h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 21¢ $21 10h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 31¢ $46 10h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 55¢ $55 10h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 333 history records