Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5617…ea92 other 29 markets active 19h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-4%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1
crypto 25% +$5
sports 9% −$4
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 40% -13.1%
≤30d 25 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 25 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 40% -13.1%
all 25 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 40% -13.1%
10% -30.3% 40% -21.4%
15% -37.0% 32% -29.0%
20% -43.2% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$8 +192%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 35h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 35h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 43 history records